Availability Heuristic overestimates likelihood of events
The availability heuristic is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater “availability” in memory, particularly if they are vivid and emotionally charged. The classic example is how travel by airplane drops shortly after a fatal crash which is vividly portrayed in new outlets. Air travel is still statistically one of the safest modes of transportation, but the availability of a shocking memory of a recent tragedy make it seem more likely to occur than it is.
The availability heuristic, like other heuristics of judgment, substitutes one question for another: you wish to estimate the size of a category or the frequency of an event, but you report an impression of the ease with which instances come to mind.[1]
Some sub-examples of the availability heuristic include the Anchoring Bias pulls an unknown value toward a known anchor and Sunk Cost Fallacy.
See also:
- Hanlon's razor avoids paranoia and ideology
- Anchoring Bias pulls an unknown value toward a known anchor
- Sunk Cost Fallacy