Proximity to a threshold decreases the shock required to cross it
A system fundamentally changes when it crosses a threshold. When a system is further away from the threshold, it takes a greater shock to push the system over the threshold. Conversely, “the closer you are to a threshold, the less of a shock it takes to put you over it.”[1]
A corollary observation is that ignorance of a threshold also increases the likelihood of crossing it:
There is a much higher likelihood of crossing a threshold into a new regime if you are unaware of its existence. This can easily occur because resilience (which … can be defined as the distance to a threshold) is a multi-faceted measure of a social-ecological system that changes over time.[2]
See also:
- Resilience Thinking understands thresholds and adaptive cycles
- Resilience is the distance between the system and its nearest threshold
Resilience Thinking – Walker and Salt (2012), ch. 2, § “Releasing the Devil.” ↩︎
Ibid., ch. 4, § “In the Loop.” ↩︎