Backcasting works backward from a desired outcome

"Backcasting" is a strategic planning method that starts by defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify the policies and operational strategies that would bring it about.

In contrast to forecasting, which extrapolates future scenarios based on current trends and known data, backcasting starts with the end goal and imagines the steps needed to achieve it, making it particularly useful for complex problems and long-term planning where future conditions may be substantially different from the present.

Though both techniques postulate a future state as a frame for strategic planning, Backcasting is the opposite of a Premortem:

Think of premortems as the opposite of backcasting... Backcasting works backward from a desired outcome. A premortem works backward from an undesired outcome. It forces you to think about what could go wrong before you act.^[1]

#strategic

see also:

• Premortem works backward from an undesirable outcome in order to prevent it
• Forecasting calculates the future from known data
• Strategic forecasting guides decision-making and catalyzes innovation
• Scenario Planning envisions the future

Think Like a Rocket Scientist – Varol (2020), ch. 9, § “The premortem”