Fear Instinct hinders thinking by confusing risk with fear

from Factfulness:

Factfulness is … recognizing when frightening things get our attention, and remembering that these are not necessarily the most risky. Our natural fears of violence, captivity, and contamination make us systematically overestimate these risks.

To control the fear instinct, calculate the risks.

• The scary world: fear vs. reality. The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected—by your own attention filter or by the media—precisely because it is scary. (see: Availability Heuristic overestimates likelihood of events)

• Risk = danger × exposure. The risk something poses to you depends not on how scared it makes you feel, but on a combination of two things. How dangerous is it? And how much are you exposed to it?

• Get calm before you carry on. When you are afraid, you see the world differently. Make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.

#bias

See also:

• Frightening and dangerous are two different things

Others in this series:

1. Gap Instinct hinders thinking by ignoring the middle majority
2. Negativity Instinct hinders thinking by emphasizing bad news
3. Straight Line Instinct hinders thinking by assuming trends will continue
4. Fear Instinct hinders thinking by confusing risk with fear
5. Size Instinct hinders thinking by considering a number without context
6. Generalization Instinct hinders thinking by using misleading categories
7. Destiny Instinct hinders thinking by forgetting that small changes add up
8. Single Perspective Instinct hinders thinking by having only a hammer
9. Blame Instinct hinders thinking by pointing fingers
10. Urgency Instinct hinders thinking by exaggerating a decision's urgency