Gap Instinct hinders thinking by ignoring the middle majority
from Factfulness:
Factfulness is … recognizing when a story talks about a gap, and remembering that this paints a picture of two separate groups, with a gap in between. The reality is often not polarized at all. Usually the majority is right there in the middle, where the gap is supposed to be.
To control the gap instinct, look for the majority.
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Beware comparisons of averages. If you could check the spreads you would probably find they overlap. There is probably no gap at all.
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Beware comparisons of extremes. In all groups, of countries or people, there are some at the top and some at the bottom. The difference is sometimes extremely unfair. But even then the majority is usually somewhere in between, right where the gap is supposed to be. (See: Dichotomous thinking simplistically resolves ambiguity)
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The view from up here. Remember, looking down from above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short, but it’s not.
See also:
Others in this series:
- Gap Instinct hinders thinking by ignoring the middle majority
- Negativity Instinct hinders thinking by emphasizing bad news
- Straight Line Instinct hinders thinking by assuming trends will continue
- Fear Instinct hinders thinking by confusing risk with fear
- Size Instinct hinders thinking by considering a number without context
- Generalization Instinct hinders thinking by using misleading categories
- Destiny Instinct hinders thinking by forgetting that small changes add up
- Single Perspective Instinct hinders thinking by having only a hammer
- Blame Instinct hinders thinking by pointing fingers
- Urgency Instinct hinders thinking by exaggerating a decision's urgency