Impact of disruptive innovations cannot be predicted
By their very nature, the impact and scope of disruptive innovations cannot be predicted.
[It] is simply impossible to predict with any useful degree of precision how disruptive products will be used or how large their markets will be. An important corollary is that, because markets for disruptive technologies are unpredictable, companies’ initial strategies for entering these markets will generally be wrong.[1]
See also:
- Disruptive innovations are complex
- Complex systems are characterized by VUCA
- Resilience is the key to overcoming the innovator’s dilemma
The Innovator’s Dilemma – Christensen (1997), ch. 7, 154. The author notes, “Research has shown, in fact, that the vast majority of successful new business ventures abandoned their original business strategies when they began implementing their initial plans and learned what would and would not work in the market. … Guessing the right strategy at the outset isn’t nearly as important to success as conserving enough resources (or having the relationships with trusting backers or investors) so that new business initiatives get a second or third stab at getting it right. Those that run out of resources or credibility before they can iterate toward a viable strategy are the ones that fail” (155). ↩︎