Making good decisions in ambiguous scenarios requires elastic thinking

Making good decisions in ambiguous scenarios requires simultaneously interpreting the scenario through more than one paradigmatic framework. This requires retaining in the mind a state of paradigmatic tension, as the facts (and anomalies) are considered through more than one lens. Without a willingness to remain confused until the truth is discovered, the mental framework will collapse into a simplistic reduction of the truth, rather than a cohesive paradigm.

What the best decision-makers do is look for ways to make sense of conflicting evidence under their existing theory but simultaneously take a mental note: This evidence stretches my theory by a little (or a lot). … It’s a tricky skill. It forces you to act without clarity, to operate under one paradigm while being aware of its flaws and inconsistencies, knowing that it might be wrong and that you might end up abandoning it. You have to resist the temptation to resolve inconsistency prematurely by forcing all of your observations into one paradigm, and instead be willing to remain confused—for days, weeks, or even years.^[1]

#cognition #strategic #paradigms