Faint Signal

Search CTRL + K

Faint Signal

Search CTRL + K

MOCs

Resilience Thinking

References

2030 – Guillén (2020)

A First Course in Network Science – Menczer, et. al. (2020)

A More Beautiful Question – Berger (2014)

A Whole New Mind – Pink (2006)

Abductive Thinking and Sensemaking – Kolko (2010)

Abundance – Diamandis and Kotler (2012)

Antifragile – Taleb (2012)

Atomic Habits – Clear (2018)

Cognitive Surplus – Shirky (2010)

Connectography – Khanna (2016)

Creative Confidence – Kelley and Kelley (2013)

Cynefin – Snowden, et al. (2020)

Elastic – Mlodinow (2018)

Exponential Organizations – Ismail, et al. (2014)

Factfulness – Rosling, et al. (2018)

Frame Innovation – Dorst (2015)

Good Strategy Bad Strategy – Rumelt (2011)

Grit – Duckworth (2016)

How Big Things Get Done – Flyvbjerg and Gardner (2023)

How Do Committees Invent – Conway (1968)

How Innovation Works – Ridley (2020)

Ideaflow – Utley and Klebahn (2022)

Influence – Cialdini (2021)

Lessons from the Hanoi Hilton – Fretwell, et. al. (2013)

Letter to the American Church – Metaxas (2022)

Linked – Barabási, Frangos (2002)

Loonshots – Bahcall (2019)

Make It Stick – Brown (2014)

Martin Luther – Metaxas (2017)

Metaphors We Live By – Lakoff and Johnson (2008)

Mindset – Dweck (2006)

Moonwalking with Einstein – Foer (2011)

Movements That Move – Reach (2016)

Networks and Netwars – Arquilla and Ronfeldt (2001)

Never Split the Difference – Voss, Raz (2016)

Noise – Kahneman, et. al. (2021)

Nonviolent Communication – Rosenberg (2015)

Nudge – Thaler and Sunstein (2021)

Originals – Grant, Sandberg (2016)

Outliers – Gladwell (2008)

Persuadable – Pittampalli (2016)

Playing to Win – Lafley and Martin (2013)

Range – Epstein (2019)

Resilience Thinking – Walker and Salt (2012)

Simple Rules for a Complex World – Sull and Eisenhardt (2012)

Supercommunicators – Duhigg (2024)

Superforecasting – Tetlock, Gardner (2015)

Switch – Heath and Heath (2010)

Taking the Medicine – Burch (2009)

Team of Teams – McChrystal, et al. (2015)

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People – Covey (2013)

The Black Swan – Taleb (2010)

The Box – Levinson (2016)

The Checklist Manifesto – Gawande (2009)

The Design of Everyday Things – Norman (2013)

The Fifth Discipline – Senge (2010)

The Great Upheaval – Levine and Van Pelt (2021)

The Infinite Game – Sinek (2019)

The Lean Startup – Ries (2011)

The Master Switch – Wu (2010)

The Molecule of More – Lieberman, Long (2018)

The Paradox of Choice – Schwartz (2009)

The Power of Habit – Duhigg (2012)

The Scout Mindset – Galef (2021)

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions – Kuhn (1962)

The Three-Box Solution – Govindarajan (2016)

The True Believer – Hoffer (2011)

The Tyranny of Experts – Easterly (2014)

The Tyranny of Metrics – Muller (2018)

The Voltage Effect – List (2022)

Think Again – Grant (2021)

Think Like a Rocket Scientist – Varol (2020)

Thinking in Systems – Meadows (2008)

Thinking, Fast and Slow – Kahneman (2013)

Transforming Mission – Bosch (2011)

Understanding Variation – Wheeler (1993)

What Matters Now – Hamel (2012)

When Helping Hurts – Corbett and Fikkert (2012)

Where Good Ideas Come From – Johnson (2011)

Writing to Learn – Zinsser (2013)

A missed signal is an opportunity wasted

Adaptability is the capacity of actors to manage the resilience of a system

Adjacent Possible is the edge of the future

All linked adaptive cycles govern the behavior of a system

All-Channel Networks can function without hierarchies

Ambiguity aversion favors the known over the unknown

An idea can fail in any number of ways

An idea is a new connection between two things

Analogical thinking uses a known example to explain something new

Anchoring Bias pulls an unknown value toward a known anchor

Antifragile systems are configured for adaptability

Antifragile Systems become stronger with shocks

Availability Heuristic overestimates likelihood of events

Backcasting works backward from a desired outcome

Bandwagon bias is social proof

Bed of Procrustes

Behavioral change fails when it requires absolute recantation

Between stimulus and response, man has the freedom to choose

Bias for action can mask a bias against thinking

Black Swan events are rare, impactful, and retrospectively predictable

Blame Instinct hinders thinking by pointing fingers

Blue Ocean strategy creates demand

Causal Loop Diagrams model system dynamics

Centralized innovation is beset by two weaknesses

Centralized systems are efficient, not disruptively innovative

Challenges are now open, complex, dynamic, and networked

Coevolution simultaneously develops the formulation of and solution to a problem

Communicating ideas requires overcoming the curse of knowledge

Compartmentalization blinds you to new possibilities

Complex adaptive systems are unpredictable and non-linear

Complex networks have unique topological features

Complex problems have many interconnected elements

Complex problems require new thinking

Complex systems are characterized by VUCA

Complex systems exhibit emergent behavior

Complexifying overcomes binary bias

Concept maps are graphical representations of mental models

Concept Networks are the building blocks of thoughts processes

Concrete communication explains in terms of human actions and senses

Confirmation Bias defends one's assumptions

Constant change requires constant reformation

Course-correcting early and often

Creating frames improves cognition

Creating frames overcomes the adoption problem

Creative events bridge problems and solutions

Creativity doesn’t look creative when you’re doing it

Credible communication carries its own credentials

Cynefin framework helps interpret systems

Data must be interpreted in context and without noise

Decentralized systems accelerate innovation

Design expertise has seven levels

Design practice can address open, complex, dynamic, networked challenges

Design Thinking is innovating routinely

Design thinking seeks to discover and solve the actual problem

Destiny Instinct hinders thinking by forgetting that small changes add up

Developing problem situations allows reframing

Dichotomous thinking simplistically resolves ambiguity

Divergent ideas come from the right brain

Diversity of a system affects resilience

Double diamond implements design thinking

Dynamic problems add elements and shift connections over time

Efficiency is purchased by a loss in flexibility

Elastic Thinking can hold two contradictory ideas simultaneously

Elastic Thinking is parallel and integrative

Emotional communication makes people feel something

Every problem is an idea problem

Exploring themes leads to solutions

Extrinsic rewards can crowd out intrinsic motivation

Faint signals are whispers from the future

Familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth

Fear Instinct hinders thinking by confusing risk with fear

First Principles thinking allows you to see the obvious hiding in plain sight

Flexibility, simplicity and adaptability are simple rules of movements

Forecasting calculates the future from known data

Fostering a discourse shapes behavior

Frame creation begins with investigation

Frame creation considers all stakeholders of the problem and solution

Frame creation develops a plan for transformation

Frame creation identifies common themes as the basis for frames

Frame creation integrates solutions into the stakeholder context

Frame creation learns practices and scenarios that may suggest a solution

Frame creation requires understanding the core paradox

Frame creation resolves complex problems in nine steps

Frame creation seeks to understand the root factors of stakeholders

Frame creation thinks forward to identify solutions

Frightening and dangerous are two different things

Fundamental Attribution Error blames others and exonerates me

Fundamental insight can trigger disruptive innovation

Gap Instinct hinders thinking by ignoring the middle majority

General resilience depends on diversity, modularity, and feedbacks

Generalization Instinct hinders thinking by using misleading categories

Getting to Trusted

Globalization is a complex system

Good decision-making does not mix values with facts

Grand strategies link means to ends

Groups whose identity is defined by changing a paradigm become committed to preserving the original paradigm

Halo effect is the tendency to like (or dislike) everything about a person

Hanlon's razor avoids paranoia and ideology

High achievers are learners and goal-setters

Human-centered design is the process of ensuring that people’s actual needs are met

Idea quotas foster creativity

Ideaflow is the single most important creative metric

Ideological purity is the best possible camouflage for appalling mediocrity

Increasing access to the means of production causes a decrease in the average quality of what gets produced

Increasing efficiency tends to lock up a system

Institutions become committed to preserving the problem they were formed to solve

Integrative, Macroscopic Thinking is antithetical to higher education

Integrative, macroscopic thinking sees the forest and the trees

Intuition delivers overly extreme predictions

Inversion illuminates solutions by identifying what would make things worse

It is difficult to make someone understand what their salary depends on them not understanding

It is impossible to teach a man what he thinks he already knows

Kind vs. Wicked Learning Environments

Kinds of networks

Large systems tend to disintegrate during development

Lateral thinking is range in action

Lateral thinking with withered technology

Liquid Networks foster innovation

Listen to the Suck with Curiosity

Locking down of a problem leads to frozen thinking

Loss aversion values avoiding losses more than achieving gains

Maps of connectivity reveal strategic dynamics

Memory palaces use physical locations to improve memory

Metaphors form the basis of our ability to think

Metcalfe's Law defines network effects

Metric fixation invites gaming

Modularity of a system affects resilience

Modularity radically reduces risk

Monkey First principle dictates building the hardest part of the moonshot first

Motivated reasoning is the soldier mindset

Near misses lead to taking unwise risks

Negativity dominance processes the bad more thoroughly than the good

Negativity Instinct hinders thinking by emphasizing bad news

Networked problems influence each other

Networks at scale increase the number of links more than nodes

Occam's razor leads to first principles thinking

Open licenses provide 5 freedoms

Open problems have unclear or permeable borders

Opportunity Cost is the sum of all the benefits provided by the options not chosen

Optimization aims to hold a system in an optimal state

Optimizing a system reduces its resilience

Organizations expand when prestige is correlated to budget size

Overton Window is a range of possibilities

Paradigm shifts create a new framework of thinking

Paradigm shifts reconstruct the field from new fundamentals

Paradigms can have phenomenal longevity

Paradigms change when they can no longer address anomalies

Pareto Principle leverages effort for maximum impact

Paternalism is doing for others what they can do for themselves

Path dependence shapes what we do next

People tend to adopt their own ideas

Perception is Reality

Perseverance balances faith and honesty

Planning fallacy confuses “best-guess” with “best-case” scenario

Planning is an active, iterative, learning process

Positive Test Strategy reinforces Confirmation Bias

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Power Law distributions

Premortem works backward from an undesirable outcome in order to prevent it

Pressure to meet a target value changes the system or the data

Prime directive of institutions is self-preservation

Problem-solving follows a four step process

Prolifically creative people pursue a network of projects

Proximity to a threshold decreases the shock required to cross it

Psychological Safety is a prerequisite for creativity

Quality arises from quantity

Reference-class forecasting avoids uniqueness bias

Reference-class forecasting overcomes the planning fallacy

Reframing shifts perspective to see things in a new way

Resilience is the capacity to absorb shocks and retain function

Resilience is the distance between the system and its nearest threshold

Resilience Thinking creates antifragile systems

Resilience Thinking embraces the reality that things change

Resilience Thinking understands thresholds and adaptive cycles

Resilient systems require both specified and general resilience

Rough Consensus enables forward progress

Scale magnifies complexity

Scale-free patterns are fractal

Scenario Planning envisions the future

Scouts frequently update their maps

Selection Bias happens when the sample is not representative

Shifting paradigms requires macroscopic, integrative thinking

Simple communication expresses the core of an idea

Simple rules tame complexity

Single Perspective Instinct hinders thinking by having only a hammer

Size Instinct hinders thinking by considering a number without context

Small sample sizes means variations will fluctuate wildly

Specialization tends to reduce range

Specified resilience defends against known disturbances

Spiral of Silence means the price of speaking out rises over time

Status quo bias favors the current state

Story-based communication elicits effective responses

Straight Line Instinct hinders thinking by assuming trends will continue

Strategic forecasting guides decision-making and catalyzes innovation

Strategy is the answer to five questions

Substitution answers an easier, similar question instead

Successful projects develop a clear, informed understanding of the goal

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Superforecasters think differently

Superforecasting is the intersection of range and mindset

Survivorship bias focuses only on successful examples

Synthesis of innovation frameworks

System noise is undesirable variability in judgments

Systems cannot be held in an optimal state

Systems image their design groups

Systems mindset examines the quality of decisions, not just outcomes

Systems of nature tend to follow an adaptive cycle

Systems Theory studies the relationships and structure of systems

Systems Thinking perceives the relationships and structure of complex systems

Tactical Empathy understands another's feelings and mindset

Teachers of a tradition tend to resist its correction

The best plans maximize experience and experimentation

The clarity of a map is not easily distinguished from its accuracy

The default carries immense power

The kernel of a good strategy includes three things

The map is not the territory

The taste of better things excites revolt

Think slow, act fast is the secret of success

Thinking from right to left begins with the goal

Three questions form the essence of innovation

Tools both illuminate and limit our understanding

Trailblazers amplify weak signals

Transformability is the capacity to create a new system

Tribalism is human nature

Trolley problem illustrates an ethical dilemma

Trustworthy vs. Trusted

Turkey problem illustrates erroneously predicting the future based on a false narrative of the past

Typologies underscore the most characteristic elements of a type

Unchecked optimism leads to project failure

Understanding the systemic structure is powerfully generative

Unexpected communication violates expectations

Urgency Instinct hinders thinking by exaggerating a decision's urgency

Use of funding for training does not disrupt movements

Using emoji and memory palaces to memorize passages

What others do is the stimulus, not the cause, of feelings

When facing potentially extreme outcomes, forecast risk

Wicked problems are difficult or impossible to solve

Wicked problems can only be addressed by systems thinking

Writing clarifies thinking

Enter to select

to navigate

ESC to close

Atomic Habits – Clear (2018)

Info

title: Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones
authors: James Clear
year: 2018
publisher: Avery
URL:

Connected Pages

Depth

On this page

Atomic Habits – Clear (2018)

Pages mentioning this page

Survivorship bias focuses only on successful examples