Straight Line Instinct hinders thinking by assuming trends will continue

We tend to assume that linear progressions will continue far longer than they usually do. Most progressions do not continue in a straight line for long.

from Factfulness:

Factfulness is … recognizing the assumption that a line will just continue straight, and remembering that such lines are rare in reality.

To control the straight line instinct, remember that curves come in different shapes.

• Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines. No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months, and no parents would expect it to.

#bias

see also:

• Black Swan events are rare, impactful, and retrospectively predictable
• 1% is Halfway

Others in this series:

1. Gap Instinct hinders thinking by ignoring the middle majority
2. Negativity Instinct hinders thinking by emphasizing bad news
3. Straight Line Instinct hinders thinking by assuming trends will continue
4. Fear Instinct hinders thinking by confusing risk with fear
5. Size Instinct hinders thinking by considering a number without context
6. Generalization Instinct hinders thinking by using misleading categories
7. Destiny Instinct hinders thinking by forgetting that small changes add up
8. Single Perspective Instinct hinders thinking by having only a hammer
9. Blame Instinct hinders thinking by pointing fingers
10. Urgency Instinct hinders thinking by exaggerating a decision's urgency