Strategic forecasting guides decision-making and catalyzes innovation

Strategic forecasting (or “strategic foresight”) is the process of analyzing and predicting future trends, events, and developments in order to inform and guide strategic decision-making and suggest new innovation possibilities. It is a tool that organizations can use to anticipate and plan for future changes in their internal and external environment.

The process of strategic forecasting typically involves several steps, including:

• the identification of key drivers of change (aka “pre-foresight”,
• the collection and analysis of data,
• the development of scenarios and forecasts.

The goal is to identify potential threats and opportunities, and to provide decision-makers with the information they need to make informed choices about the future direction of the organization. Strategic forecasting can be applied to a variety of organizational contexts, including business, government, and non-profits. It is used to inform decisions related to long-term planning, strategic management, resource allocation, and risk management.

Note: Strategic Forecasting is not the same as “forecasting.” Forecasting is a managerial practice of calculating future supply and demand based on known data (“how many widgets can we make and sell next year”). Strategic forecasting is a leadership function that includes known data as a factor, but integrates broader trends through “horizon scanning” and Scenario Planning.

#strategic #foresight

see also:

• Straight Line Instinct hinders thinking by assuming trends will continue
• Black Swan events are rare, impactful, and retrospectively predictable
• Innovation often occurs in the gaps between major domains
• Integrative, Macroscopic Thinking is antithetical to higher education