Turkey problem illustrates erroneously predicting the future based on a false narrative of the past

The “turkey problem” is a term used to describe the phenomenon of predicting the future based on a false narrative of the past. Due to a pattern of positive experiences or outcomes, an individual or organization becomes increasingly complacent and overconfident in their ability to predict future events.

The term comes from the following thought experiment: Imagine a turkey that is fed every day by a farmer. Each day, the turkey becomes more confident that it will be fed the next day, just as it has been fed every other day in the past. However, on the day before Thanksgiving, the turkey's streak of positive experiences comes to an abrupt end when it is slaughtered for the farmer's feast. The turkey’s narrative, based entirely on previous experience, was useless in predicting the actual (decidedly negative) outcome.

Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race "looking out for its best interests," as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.
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The turkey problem can be generalized to any situation where the same hand that feeds you can be the one that wrings your neck.

source: The Black Swan – Taleb (2010), p. 40.

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